The Signal and The Noise

Introduction

Prior to the printing press, a book cost about 1 florin (gold coin ~$200) per 5 pages. The printing press instantly brought the price down to around $0.70 / 5 pages. He ties the rise in Renaissance warfare to the printing press and printing of religious books, I'm not sure I agree with that.

Out of Sample

When the conclusions you're drawing from data are inaccurate because the samples do not accurately represent the context in which you are predicting.

Accurate and Precise

Accuracy is how far the mean of your prediction is from reality

Precision is the standard deviation of your predictions

Foxes

use many types of models, questions conclusions. grows more accurate with more data.

Hedgehog

relies on a single model, confuses what they want with what will happen. grows less accurate with more data.

his discussion of SIR overlooks the predictive value of vaccination percentage needed. it's not meant to model real world transmission.