The Signal and The Noise: Difference between revisions
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;Accurate and Precise | ;Accurate and Precise | ||
:Accuracy is how far the mean of your prediction is from reality | :Accuracy is how far the mean of your prediction is from reality | ||
:Precision is the standard deviation of your | :Precision is the standard deviation of your predictions | ||
; Foxes | |||
: use many types of models, questions conclusions. grows more accurate with more data. | |||
; Hedgehog | |||
: relies on a single model, confuses what they want with what will happen. grows less accurate with more data. | |||
his discussion of SIR overlooks the predictive value of vaccination percentage needed. it's not meant to model real world transmission. | |||
[[Category:Notes]] | [[Category:Notes]] | ||
Latest revision as of 02:35, 18 April 2013
Introduction
Prior to the printing press, a book cost about 1 florin (gold coin ~$200) per 5 pages. The printing press instantly brought the price down to around $0.70 / 5 pages. He ties the rise in Renaissance warfare to the printing press and printing of religious books, I'm not sure I agree with that.
- Out of Sample
- When the conclusions you're drawing from data are inaccurate because the samples do not accurately represent the context in which you are predicting.
- Accurate and Precise
- Accuracy is how far the mean of your prediction is from reality
- Precision is the standard deviation of your predictions
- Foxes
- use many types of models, questions conclusions. grows more accurate with more data.
- Hedgehog
- relies on a single model, confuses what they want with what will happen. grows less accurate with more data.
his discussion of SIR overlooks the predictive value of vaccination percentage needed. it's not meant to model real world transmission.