The Signal and The Noise

Introduction

Prior to the printing press, a book cost about 1 florin (gold coin ~$200) per 5 pages. The printing press instantly brought the price down to around $0.70 / 5 pages. He ties the rise in Renaissance warfare to the printing press and printing of religious books, I'm not sure I agree with that.

Out of Sample

When the conclusions you're drawing from data are inaccurate because the samples do not accurately represent the context in which you are predicting.

Accurate and Precise

Accuracy is how far the mean of your prediction is from reality

Precision is the standard deviation of your predicitons